Releasing Long Range Forecast for coming June to September period, Union Minister for Science and Technology and Earth Sciences, Shri Pawan Kumar Bansal said, “The rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal i.e. 96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA). Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of + 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.”
This was the first stage of the forecast strategy by India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the second stage forecast will be done in June 2011. Along with the update forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole during the second of the season (August-September) will be issued in July and that for September will be issued in August.
The LPA of the southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. The first long range forecast for the southwest monsoon season (June-September) rainfall is issued in April and the forecast update is issued in June.