Strategic Foresight Group

This report by the Strategic Foresight Group is a follow-up to its earlier report The Himalayan Challenge: Water Security in Emerging Asia, 2010 . The growing water stress, plans for dams on shared rivers, and uncertainties about the precise impact of climate change have brought water to the forefront of the political agenda of countries in the Himalayan River Basins.

The report recommends policy options for national governments as well as strategies which can be implemented by local authorities and community groups in a politically viable manner. Some of the ideas may on the surface appear to be addressing micro-level issues. However, such micro-level issues do have an important bearing on security at the macro-level in a large continent such as Asia. This is the experience of many other regions as well, as illustrated in several of the chapters in this report.

The objective of this report is to explore how river basins in the Himalayan region, and particularly shared water resources, can foster cooperation and security between Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal. The conventional view is that depleting water resources, growing problem of pollution, uncertain risks posed by climate change together may lead to competition for resources, migration, social instability, internal conflicts and diplomatic tensions between countries. This view is realistic and was discussed in detail in a previous report of Strategic Foresight Group. It has contributed to spreading the awareness of security risks associated with water crisis in the Himalayan region.